It is false that an “Intrapolls poll” puts André Ventura in the lead in the presidential race.

Far-right accounts and the Chega newspaper claim that a poll reveals that “André Ventura is already leading the presidential race with 25% of voting intentions,” but this result is from a voluntary survey, not a poll.

Claim: “Intrapolls poll” puts André Ventura “ahead of voting intentions for the presidential elections”

On Monday, September 22, the newspaper Folha Nacional, the newspaper that supports Chega, stated that “according to an Intrapolls poll, André Ventura appears to be leading the voting intentions for the presidential elections, with 25% of the votes” (https://archive.ph/FU90h).

The news text states that “the CHEGA leader appears ahead of Henrique Gouveia e Melo and António José Seguro, both with 21%, and Luís Marques Mendes, who has 20%.”

In the third and final paragraph, Folha Nacional also wrote that this data comes from a “survey published by Intrapolls itself through its official Instagram account,” whose data “positions Ventura as the best-placed candidate to win the first round of the presidential elections.”

On the same date, the far-right account 'Resistência Lusitana' claimed on the social network X that "André Ventura is leading the polls for President of the Republic." According to this post, which has already been viewed more than 128,000 times and shared hundreds of times, "the CHEGA leader has 25% of the vote" and "the system is in shock": https://archive.ph/6RPle.

The alleged Intrapolls data was also used by Chega's media outlet, which shared a graph with the results and the claim that "Ventura is already ahead in the first round of the presidential elections." In this case, the party claims it is an Intrapolls "survey," without any further explanation: https://archive.ph/UTp3U.

Facts: Intrapolls does not conduct polls, it only conducts voluntary surveys.

An analysis of Intrapolls' various accounts quickly reveals that it is not a polling company. In X, for example, the project clearly states that it "does not conduct polls, but rather electoral analyses, which may be supported by non-representative open-participation surveys."

On Facebook, an "important clarification" also appears, "reinforcing that [the] page does not, and has never, conducted opinion polls representative of the Portuguese population, in its appropriate demographic proportions, nor does it have that objective. What it does are electoral analyses based partially on the 'feedback' of a non-representative sample of the country." (https://archive.ph/gmun9)

In this publication, also shared on X (https://archive.ph/9dICm), the project authors explain that “the purpose is to build a large-scale national electoral landscape, with superior quality to other available electoral maps” and acknowledge that “confusion between what is a poll and what is not is common.”

"At the local level, surveys with random sampling and rigorous methodology tend to be more accurate. However, these surveys do not offer the macro-level picture they aim to present. It is reiterated that local surveys conducted in accordance with the legal procedures of the Regulatory Authority for Social Communication (ERC) are, a priori, more reliable for local analyses than the studies conducted by this website, which have a cross-sectional and large-scale focus."

The numbers cited by Folha Nacional and Chega can be found in this Instagram post, where Intrapolls presents data and graphs with estimates of support by party in percentage of votes for seven candidates: https://archive.ph/ZJJds.

The text accompanying this publication also presents the estimates for the first round, with André Ventura in first, with 25%, Henrique Gouveia e Melo and António José Seguro in second, both with 21%, and Luís Marques Mendes in third, with 20%.

On Tuesday, Intrapolls also published “estimated scenarios for a second round with André Ventura”, where the Chega leader “is completely defeated” in “3 potential scenarios”, namely António José Seguro, Luís Marques Mendes and Gouveia e Melo: https://archive.ph/LAmls.

This publication also makes it clear that this “study is not and is not intended to be seen as a survey” and that “the sample is not representative of the universe of Portuguese voters, being made up only of voluntary participants” whose responses were processed and adjusted “based on sociodemographic characteristics and reported voting intentions”.

This isn't the first time that Chega or accounts linked to the party have publicized opinion polls as polls, or even distorted polls. A look at the ERC's latest deliberations reveals that six misdemeanor proceedings were recently opened against Chega specifically for violating the Polling Law: https://archive.ph/rfiUQ.

The proceedings mainly result from the “violation of the rules for public disclosure of opinion polls”, namely “because the publications lack an express warning that such results do not allow, scientifically, for generalizations, representing only the opinion of those surveyed”, but there is also a case of “distortion of results” from a poll by the Catholic University/CESOP for RTP.

In one case, the ERC even opened an official proceeding against the company Sondelcerto, whose opinion poll allegedly conducted among the Portuguese community in Canada was widely publicized by Chega in early May.

In this process, the ERC detected “strong evidence” of “crimes of document forgery and computer forgery” by Sondelcerto, “with the purpose of influencing electoral perception”, which is why it referred the case to the Public Prosecutor's Office at the end of July.

Contradictory

Lusa Verifica contacted the director of Folha Nacional, but received no response to the question about “why the article violates the Polling Law by omitting mandatory publication elements, namely the technical sheet, if it is actually a poll, or the express warning that those results cannot be extrapolated to a universe other than that of those surveyed, if it is a mere survey, a figure also mentioned in the text”.

However, after this contact, Folha Nacional changed the news to eliminate the reference to the poll, replacing it with “Intrapolls survey”, but without adding the mandatory warning about the scope of those results (https://archive.ph/fo2W8).

For his part, Tiago Campos, founder of Intrapolls, was adamant in stating that “there is no poll at all, because Intrapolls does not conduct polls, it only promotes voluntary surveys” (https://archive.ph/QHD96) and that “no poll has yet been released after André Ventura’s announcement.”

According to this analyst, the data used by Folha Nacional and Chega are based "on two surveys, the most recent with 471 responses and the oldest with 1,873 responses, for a total of 2,344 responses", but the results "are not only the result of voting intentions but above all electoral expectations".

Regarding Chega's use, Interpolls "would prefer they didn't publish the scenarios" in that way. "I'm not the one who decides what they publish. There have been problems in the past, and I, along with the team at the time, stated what I had to say, explaining what the scenario referred to. From then on, I ignored it because I need a completely neutral stance regarding all parties and because I believe there's not much I can do," says Tiago Campos.

Regarding the quality of the results, this analyst believes he has a proven model with some protection against manipulation attempts. "One or two responses escape my control, but generally, the results can't be distorted," he states.

The ERC, for its part, confirms that “Intrapolls is not accredited to conduct polls”, but has not yet clarified the specific results of the administrative offence proceedings already brought against Chega for violating the Polling Law.

In every election, the regulatory body has reminded the media and other stakeholders of the rules applicable to the dissemination of polls and opinion surveys, as it did in the recent legislative elections: https://archive.ph/eg5w9.

Lusa Verify Assessment: False

To date, there is no poll deposited with the ERC that places André Ventura in the lead in the presidential race, particularly in the first round of the presidential elections, scheduled for January 18, nor any poll carried out after the announcement of his candidacy for the Presidency of the Republic.

As stated by the pollsters themselves, the opinion polls published by the Intrapolls project are not surveys. More than just voting intentions, they reveal electoral expectations and do not allow for generalizations or extrapolation to the national electorate, representing only the opinions of those surveyed.